How Chinese warships encircled Australia – without Canberra even noticing
It was a Virgin Australia pilot who first raised the alarm. At 9.58am on Friday Feb 21, the pilot intercepted a warning from the Chinese navy: a flotilla of warships were conducting live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, some 300 nautical miles off the eastern coast of Australia.
The message – broadcast on the 121.5 MHz emergency radio channel used by commercial pilots to communicate – was relayed to the air traffic controller, who then passed it to the military.
“At that stage we didn’t know whether it was a potential hoax or real,” Peter Curran, deputy chief executive of Airservices Australia, told a parliamentary hearing this week.
But the message was not a hoax.
In a highly unusual move, three Chinese naval vessels dubbed Task Group 107 – including a Jiangkai-class frigate, a Renhai-class cruiser and a Fuchi-class replenishment vessel – were conducting exercises in Australia’s exclusive economic zone.
This area is beyond Australia’s territorial waters, but it has exclusive economic rights. To avoid any incidents, 49 flights were diverted.
Canberra is in a difficult position as it is keen not to damage improved diplomatic relations. Australia was hit hard by trade restrictions when it led the Five Eyes alliance to ban Huawei, the Chinese tech corporation, and later when it called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.
Although Australia has rebuked Beijing for providing such short notice, the government stressed the naval exercises were not illegal. China has countered that all criticism is “deliberately overhyped”.
But a week after the first exercises, as details drip out in senate hearings and the warships continue to circumvent Australia, the saga is continuing to dominate headlines Down Under.
And it has raised critical, uncomfortable questions. What were China’s intentions? Are Australia or New Zealand prepared to counter the Asian superpower?
‘Shouldn’t be shocked’
On the first point, analysts say that Beijing was delivering a message: we are a great military power.
Veerle Nouwens, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia, told The Telegraph that the live-fire exercises were a sign not just to Australia, but also to the US and its allies, that “China is capable of deploying at distance”.
“It’s a sign that China’s military capabilities shouldn’t be underestimated,” Ms Nouwens said.
He added that China is showing that “its ambitions over the past 10 years to evolve into a blue-water navy is coming to fruition”.
Beijing has certainly transformed its capacity at sea in the last decade. In 2015, its navy battle force stood at 255 vessels, according to the US Congressional Research Office – by 2025, that figure had jumped to 400.
“The growth and modernisation of China’s navy has gone hand-in-hand with an increasingly expeditionary strategy,” said Jennifer Parker, a former principal warfare officer in the Royal Australian Navy.
Writing in the Australian Financial Review, she said: “Chinese naval deployments to the Indian and Pacific oceans are on the rise, marked by the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in 2017 and increasingly common Pacific port visits, including stops in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea as well as hospital ship deployments to the South Pacific.
“Against this backdrop, Australia shouldn’t be shocked to see a Chinese navy task group off our east coast.
“It’s rightly considered an uncommon occurrence, particularly since Australia’s east coast isn’t exactly on the way to anywhere … but we should expect it to become increasingly common.”
A show of strength
But China’s actions are likely also a “symbolic gesture of ‘equal treatment’”, according to Ms Nouwens. Amid the mounting battle for influence in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may want to remind the US and its allies: if you poke us in our backyard, we’ll poke you back.
China considers both the Taiwan Strait and large chunks of the South China Sea as its own territorial waters.
“China likely wants to signal that if Australia and others can sail through and conduct exercises in what China considers its waters and neighbourhood, then China will do the same,” Ms Nouwens said.
“Australia and New Zealand continue to engage in and build their defence partnerships in the Asia-Pacific through diplomacy and exercises.
“This has included the South China Sea, while New Zealand made its first naval transit through the Taiwan Strait in seven years in October last year together with Australia.
“China often views these with suspicion, and sees them as confrontational and symbolic of part of wider US competition with China.”
Still, she added that it is significant that Beijing conducted the drills in the exclusive economic zone. It suggests the live-fire drills and long trek south were a show of strength, not an attempt to escalate.
Trade becoming a ‘straitjacket’
Events over the past week were also an important test of how prepared Australia and New Zealand are to respond to Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
According to Matthew Knot, The Sydney Herald’s national security correspondent, “the results so far look like a failure”. He argued that Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, downplayed the situation, while both the Australian Defence Force and the New Zealand Navy initially missed that the exercise was even happening.
Others have stressed that overreacting could be counterproductive, potentially undermining arguments used by the US and its allies around access to waters such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Australia has also recently stabilised diplomatic relations with China, allowing the resumption of trade of goods including wine, beer and barley – a popular policy Mr Albanese will not want to jeopardise.
But analysts said this should not be a “straitjacket” that prevents criticism of Beijing.
However, an uncomfortable truth should not be ignored: Australia’s core vulnerabilities lie at sea. Australia’s navy has just 16 battle force vessels, “its smallest and oldest in decades” after “underinvestment by successive governments”.
“In a crisis or conflict, an adversary wouldn’t need to invade our shores to bring Australia’s economy – and by extension, our defence– to its knees,” said Ms Parker. “All it would have to do would be to cut off our critical seaborne supplies.”
She added that Australia cannot hope to match China’s naval might, and its security should continue to rely on strong alliances and partnerships. But even so, the country is coming up short.
Ms Parker said: “China’s naval demonstration on Australia’s east coast should serve a reminder of our vulnerability, and a warning that addressing this vulnerability requires Australia to truly recognise its place as a maritime power.”